WJC: Not Canadas Year
It's true - team Canada is only a shadow of its 2005 World Junior team here in Vancouver - Cam Barker's shadow that is. But don't feel down - Canada is still among four teams in the Under-20 tournament capable of taking gold and we have insight and predictions right here. Find out why this year's American team could be as dominant as the Canadian and Russian clubs in 2005 and 2003.
For better or for worse, we roll out the predictions:
Advertisement
1. USA
This is probably the best World Junior team this country has ever iced and anything less than a gold medal would be a bitter disappointment. The talent level of these guys is amazing - the defense top-to-bottom is elite. There isn't one guy on the back end that doesn't stand out as a solid NHL prospect. Last year a monster blueline controlled the tempo of games for Canada - with the right coaching, the United States could simply blow everyone out of the water.
Why They will Win: If all the defensemen are on the same page and no locker room turmoil occurs between the likes of Kessel and Skille (reportedly they aren't too fond of each other). Otherwise the ratio of skill and grit at forward is outstanding - these guys can dominate with their size, their hands, their speed and their heads. Watch out for the little Gionta-esque Nate Gerbe - he is quite the shift disturber. Leading the way on offense will be Kessel, Schremp, Ryan, Skille and Mueller.
Why They will Lose: We don't know what to expect from goalie Cory Schneider although his track record is very good. Don't pay attention to his struggles at last year's one tournament game as he is typically a very calm, composed netminder. Still, a strong offensively layered team like Russia or the spirited, nothing-to-lose approach of Canada could upset these guys on the right night. But "upset" would be the word.
Star Power: Chris Butler (D), Erik Johnson (D), Jack Johnson (D), Brian Lee (D), Matt Niskanen (D), Chris Bourque (F), Phil Kessel (F), Peter Mueller (F), Bobby Ryan (F), Rob Schremp (F), Jack Skille (F), Blake Wheeler (F).
Prediction: The smart money is on them going undefeated with dominance reminiscent of Canada in 2005 and Russia in 2003.
2. Russia
Nine players are back from last year's team - in a 19-year old's tournament this kind of experience could bode huge. The Russians will rely on their strong forward depth and improved defensive core to go for gold. They have been building for this year but they will have to do it with unstable goaltending.
Why They will Win: This is reminiscent of 1999 in Winnipeg when Russia had a dominant squad that succeeded in spite of awful netminding (Alexei Volkov). If Anton Khudobin settles down and plays the best tournament of his career (he has nowhere to go but up), Russia has as good a shot at gold as any team. His five-hole is good but he's awful at moving side-to-side and rebound control is still an issue. Voloshenko-Malkin-Radulov will have to dominate as expected while Alexei Emelin will have to continue his stellar international play. Look for an eye-opening performance from Gennady Churilov.
Why They will Lose: If the opposing teams exploit Khudobin. This guy has not had a good game against Canadian teams since last year's Russia-CHL challenge. Since then he has been lit up in the 2005 World Junior final, in this year's CHL-Russia Challenge and the recent exhibition game. The backup Ivan Kasutin has looked awful which makes one wonder why 17-year old Semen Varlamov is not getting consideration - he was easily the best goalie for Russia at the ADT Challenge and already looks the most mature of the three. Russia should strongly consider giving this kid some playing time - he is the country's best goaltending prospect since Ilya Bryzgalov (Editor's note: shortly after the exhibition game against Switzerland Kasutin was cut, thus making Varlamov the backup).
Star Power: Alexei Emelin (D), Enver Lisin (F), Evgeny Malkin (F), Alexander Radulov (F), Sergei Shirokov (F), Roman Voloshenko (F).
Prediction: 2nd overall. The United States have two blueline standouts Russia cannot match (Jack Johnson, Brian Lee) and a better goalie (Cory Schneider).
3. Canada
This is a much younger, greener team comparing to the juggernaut Canada iced last year. Only one player (Cam Barker) is back, so inexperience may be a factor that will come into play later into the tournament. However Brent Sutter's no-nonsense coaching should ensure that he gets the maximum effort out of his club game in and game out. Sutter also did his best to ice a squad that is physical and defensively sound. Although offensively inferior to both the USA and Russia, Canada is jam-packed with physical energy players like Steve Downie, Blake Comeau, Kyle Chipchura and Tom Pyatt. They can grind their way to the gold medal.
Why They will Win: A coherent all-around effort will get this team far. Justin Pogge will have to be brilliant while Downie, Cogliano and Latendresse will have to have outstanding performances. If they go down, it will not be with a whimper.
Why They will Lose: There are some concerns here: Barker has looked weak and inconsistent at camp and exhibition. David Bolland has also been rather ordinary. Latendresse needs someone to set him up in the slot because he doesn't have the quickness to go end-to-end. Offensively, it may be up to Cogliano and Toews to carry this club and if they don't deliver Canada may lose in the quarters.
Star Power: Cam Barker (D), Luc Bourdon (D), Marc Staal (D), Andrew Cogliano (F), Guillaume Latendresse (F), Benoit Pouliot (F), Jonathan Toews (F).
Prediction: 3rd overall. Canada will ice a better team next year.
4. Finland
Hard work and strong physical play will characterize this team in the tournament. This squad has big bodies that can dominate on the cycle and win puck races with their speed. There are also guys here who can score like Tukonen, Korpikoski and Joensuu. In the end, it will come down to Karri Ramo and Rask and whether they can hold the fort.
Why They will Win: Chemistry between Tukonen and Korpikoski will have to sizzle. These two have dominated together before and they can do it again. Watch out for Lindgren - he is a darkhorse to end up top-five in scoring. Someone will have to step up on the blueline, like Teemu Laakso, to lead the rush at a near-elite level. One of Ramo and Rask will have to win the starting duties outright and earn the trust of his teammates.
Why They will Lose: This blueline is ordinary at best. Neither Korhonen nor Laakso have developed as expected. This team has more offense than we are usually accustomed to seeing from Finland, but looking at what Russia and the US have out there the Finns may come short of the podium yet again.
Star Power: Tuukka Rask (G), Jesse Joensuu (F), Lauri Korpikoski (F), Perttu Lindgren (F), Lauri Tukonen (F).
Prediction: 4th overall but they can catch fire and ride a hot goalie all the way to the gold. It's not likely, but is possible. Regardless of the outcome, this should be a fun team to watch.
5. Czech Republic
This is a deep team with some excellent energy forwards. The Czechs will rely on their strong cycle game and consistent forecheck while Marek Schwarz may be the best goaltender in the tournament. Unfortunately there is a real lack of firepower here - the only real offensive standout may be the defender Smid who is capable of dominating.
Why They will Win: Watch out for these names: Bahensky, Kalus and Krecji. These guys are capable of outworking other units and creating on the rush. All three have looked very good so far. Schwarz can steal medal round games but he can also be downright terrible on other nights.
Why They will Lose: Kindl still looks like a flake while Vojta always is. There is a real lack of character on this blueline. Frolik has cooled off lately and is playing too conservative for our liking.
Prediction: 5th overall. Don't discount the Schwarz factor - he is the tournament's biggest wildcard.
6. Sweden
They haven't won a medal in this tournament in an eternity and the streak of shame will not end this year. The Swedes will ice some exciting talent here but they are mostly building for 2007 when they could have as many as nine players returning.
Why They will Win: This is unlikely to happen. Sweden's most talented goalie is probably Jhonas Enroth but he was too young to make the club. Their blueline will not strike fear into anyone, as it lacks a standout dominant force. However look for 6-foot-4, 210-pound Johan Ryno to really open some eyes along with draft-eligible wunderkind Nicklas Backstrom.
Why They will Lose: Neither gritty nor skilled enough to overtake the better squads.
Prediction: 6th overall. The Swedes will be pushovers yet again.
7. Slovakia
Another young team with nine potential returnees, building for some stability. This will be an opportunity for the likes of Zagrapan and Boris Valabik to shine as this is their last World Junior tournament. The blueline is lacking in speed and talent but has grit and it will be fascinating to watch twin towers Valabik and Vladimir Mihalik (6'6 and 6'7, respectively) patrol the back end. Will they be on the same pairing? Also, draft-eligible Lukas Bohunicky shows some flashes of Darius Kasparaitis.
Why They will Win: Michal Valent is a seasoned netminder at the international level who can steal a game or two. But it won't be enough to get them on the podium. Mature all-purpose Andrej Sekera will take care of the puckhandling duties.
Why They will Lose: This team does not have the kind of quick, gritty forwards who can create space for the stars Zagrapan and Mikus. Expect the Slovaks to get physically manhandled in most games.
Prediction: 7th overall. Maybe Valabik and Mihalik should try basketball.
Others
8. Switzerland - watch out for Rafael Diaz and Julien Sprunger to lead the way. Reto Berra and Leonardo Genoni are the top goalies and are teammates on the GCK Lions. Dario Burgler and Juraj Simek are a couple of talents who can create off the rush.
9. Latvia - Oskars Bartulis and Martins Karsums are a couple of familiar names to keep in mind.
10. Norway - these are mostly unknowns although we know enough about Mathis Olimb and Joakim Jensen. A hidden gem may be Mathias Trygg - he has soft hands and a nice scoring touch.