Taking a Fall

Gennady Churilov - LW (Quebec)

One measly goal after 18 games for a supposed first-rounder in a plentiful draft just doesn’t cut it. We fully expect the import Russian to improve as he adjusts to a new league and country, but he’ll shoot down the ranks if he doesn’t turn the corner soon. “He’s not working hard enough,” according to a QMJHL scout. “I don’t know if it’s laziness or if he’s just unsure of himself and alienated in a strange new country. There’s no denying that he is immensely skilled - great hands, nice dangle and pretty good vision - just not standing out. He spends too much time on the periphery and is expecting the puck to come to him instead of digging for it like everyone else. I wouldn’t cross him off your list just yet though.” Part of this tentativeness may be related to past health troubles, as our Russian scout thinks Churilov “hasn’t been the same player since suffering a pair of serious injuries a couple of years back.”

Andrew Cogliano - C (St. Michael’s Buzzers)

If there is a draft next June, it is becoming increasingly less likely that Cogliano will opt in. His decision to play an extra year in the OPJHL seemed to foreshadow the decline in his draft stock, and some early-season rust has been a cause for concern. However, he has really picked it up over the past couple of weeks, now topping the league with 35 points in 18 games, after struggling to stand out over younger teammates Matthew Kang and Mark Lozzi. A gifted game-breaker, Cogliano, despite the recent surge, has thus far failed to alleviate concerns about his size, at times ignoring tougher defensive assignments and avoiding high traffic areas. Also troubling us is a seeming lack of physical development. He doesn’t look that much stronger since we saw him last season, which should prompt him to suit up for the Michigan Wolverines next fall undrafted.

Nate Dey - RW (St. Cloud State)

Talented `85-born Minnesota native hasn’t exactly set the WCHA on fire early in his debut with the Huskies after being bypassed in this summer’s NHL Draft (was ranked 115th on CSB’s final North American list). “I can’t figure him out,” bemuses our scout. “He has been given a regular shift and appears to have all the tools to be an impact player, however, he has looked lost and a step behind the action so far. I like his size and mobility though. His turns and startup strides are very smooth and polished, and he appears to think the game well enough. He needs to elevate his intensity level and to get more involved physically as he tends to let his checks off the hook.” We haven’t closed the book yet on the former Mr. Hockey winner (`03), but, given he’s a full two years older than most of the top prospects, he may be on the final chapter.

Mike Gauthier - D (Prince Albert)

Not developing at the kind of pace that the Raiders had envisioned when they drafted this kid third overall ahead of the likes of Chris Durand, Devin Setoguchi and Carey Price, all of whom have since roared past. The hulking rearguard from North Vancouver is neither sufficiently nasty nor strong - he is still slender and lacks the kind of smart physical edge that scouts have been eagerly anticipating. His vision and hands are questionable, while his feet aren’t quick enough to be a stalwart. He just does not intimidate guys the way he should. “Despite his stunted development, I’m hesitant to drop him too far,” advises our western scout. “If we are looking at NHL potential, there’s some upside there. Just extremely raw at this stage still.”

Christoph Gawlik - RW (Eisbaren Berlin)

The top-rated German injured his shoulder in Berlin’s first exhibition match and had to undergo surgery on what has been a recurring problem over the past year. Gawlik is expected to be out until at least January, which will assuredly damage his draft stock.

Devereaux Heshmatpour - D (Kitchener)

At times, this behemoth resembles a young and uncooked Ed Jovanovski, especially when those enormous limbs get heading in the same direction. His straightaway speed is actually quite impressive for a 6-foot-6 man-child, however, he can also appear unsteady and sluggish when forced to track speedy forwards off the cycle. And his strength is a bit illusory, as he struggles to pin much smaller opponents along the boards. Add in stiff finesse skills and dubious positional decisions, and his stock is in a freefall at this stage after long being projected as a potential first-rounder. Raw, raw, raw!

Martin Husicka - C (Vsetin)

Flashy little Czech ranks among the biggest disappointments in the junior Extraleague this season. Despite possessing loads of experience, Husicka has failed to elevate his game to another level, usually just blending in with the scenery. Often worth the price of admission due to an array of offensive skills, including above-average skating, however, his wheels haven’t been able to make up for the size deficiency, as he gets easily negated in traffic and pushed out of scoring lanes. Making matters worse is his merely average defensive play. Huciska’s stock is in freefall, and he’s in jeopardy of being bypassed next June barring a complete turnaround.

Ryan Mior - G (PEI)

Highly-touted St. John’s, Newfoundland native has been completely out of sync in a backup role to Jonathan Boutin with the Rocket, stumbling along with an unflattering .883 save percentage. The animated Mior needs to display greater consistency if he hopes to earn his share of starts behind the red-hot veteran, but, thus far, his performances have been shaky to say the least. His inability to economize crease movements has been costly, as pucks have eluded him both five-hole and on angles. In addition, Mior has not upgraded his balance, while his lack of poise and composure have our ‘Q’ scouts a tad concerned. Nevertheless, the tools are here. He’s fast and athletic, and may yet turn into a solid pro given his competitiveness, which remains an exemplary quality.

Mattias Modig - G (Lulea)

The top-rated Swedish goalie caught our eye late last season with a spirited performance for Lulea’s junior squad in the playoffs, however, the magic appears to have worn off to start the current campaign. Right now, this guy would struggle to stop a beach ball. As a result, his confidence is at an all-time low, and mechanics are all over the place. A light, dexterous goaltender, Modig is a bit of a rarity in Sweden due to his strong puckmoving skills, but his below-average balance and penchant to go down prematurely makes us wonder just what he was doing in the off-season.

Phil Oreskovic - D (Brampton)

There’s plenty to entice here given a massive, mobile frame and that ever-nasty snarl. But we just don’t see much progress from last season. Playing in the third pairing, the bruising Oreskovic rarely sees time on the power play, nor is he Stan Butler’s first choice to kill penalties. Can you say underutilized? The parts exist though to be a solid pro. He’s strong one-on-one, moves surprisingly well for his size (albeit a bit stiff at times), displays excellent leadership qualities, and needs no invitation to stick up for his teammates. Still, given the depth of this year’s class, we’d like to see a little more.

Jakub Vojta - D (Sparta Praha)

The shine is definitely rubbing off this Czech defender in a hurry. Once a top-rated prospect, Vojta’s stock is dipping precipitously, and threatens to bottom out completely unless something changes soon. “His play is going downhill and I have my doubts whether he would even hear his name called in the second round if the draft was held today,” according to our scout. “One of the main problems is his work ethic, which just isn’t at a level to allow him to flourish as a defender. He’s an offensive-minded guy with strong powerplay skills and above-average skating. However, he loses focus at the back routinely, which is why he is shunted to play on the wing, where his breakdowns are not so costly. Of course, things may turnaround, but, from what I have seen so far this season, I am not holding my breath.”

Tom Wandell - C (Sodertalje)

Has yet to play a game this season in either the junior league or internationally due to a shoulder injury. Underwent surgery during the offseason, but the recovery process has been longer than anticipated.

Ryan Wilson - D (Toronto St. Michael’s)

The chronically-plain rearguard just does not appear to have a whole lot more to offer. While solid at taking the body and also a strong shooter, his foot work and overall quickness have not progressed since last season. Wilson’s lack of giddyup is hurting his ability to safely join the rush and, most critically, leaving him vulnerable defending down low. “He reads the game and support his teammates very well, and also has solid puckmoving skills, but his overall tempo needs to increase substantially,” says our OHL scout. “At first glance, he looks sturdy and dependable, however, his play this season has been nothing special. There isn’t much to get overly excited about or leave you with the impression that he’ll be anything more than an average minor leaguer.” Will have a tough time holding down a spot in our top 100 unless he finds that extra gear soon.