Not One for the Ages

NHL scouts will be earning their pay on the weekend of the draft on June 26, 27. The watered down class of 2004 became even more ambiguous as several players decided not to opt in.

While no real potential stars bailed on this year's draft, several solid players (many from the United States) decided to try their luck next year. Michigan's T.J. Hensick was the biggest surprise - coming off an impressive rookie college campaign, he looked like a lock to go in round two. Thereafter it was reported that Keith Yandle and Paul Stastny opted to wait until 2005 and exposed a receding hairline of talent.

The mediocrity of this year's draft class becomes apparent as we get into the bottom 20-25 of the Mckeen’s top 100 list. It is even more obvious when you note that many of the players that occupy the positions on our list are stay-at-home defensemen or unproven high school players.

But let's set the record straight - the 2004 draft crop is not poor. 1996 was poor beyond belief, but the first two rounds this June should unearth very solid talent and let's not forget that this year's top five will consist of potential stars such as Alexander Ovechkin, Evgeni Malkin and Cam Barker.

That being said, can we expect similar stories to that of Patrice Bergeron or Brent Burns or New Jersey's fantastic selections of Zach Parise and Petr Vrana? Something tells us that the cream of the crop will be gone early in the afternoon of June 26th. Teams that draft wisely and select the likes of Martins Karsums and John Lammers beyond round one will, in all likelihood, be rewarded. Yet, even these guys look three, four years away at best.

Off-Year for the CHL

Among the CHL leagues, only the OHL offers a relatively solid crop - in fact, we could easily list 50 guys from there we feel are potentially worthy of a flyer on the draft weekend. That said, McKeen's June top 100 includes 17 OHL'ers, as the other 23 rated on our OHL list are amid a cluttered conundrum where a player like Tyler Kennedy can look as good as 20th on some nights and as bad as 40th in others.

Thus is the hair-splitting reality of scouting and NHL scouts will, no doubt, be having the times of their lives trying to pluck out gems out of that sea of inferiority.

The QMJHL, which should come back with a vengeance in 2005, is having an off year of legendary proportions. Only six players out of the Q cracked our June top 100 with the blue-collar extraordinaire Frederik Cabana and mistake-prone Michal Sersen barely squeaking in to bring up the rear.

The WHL offered up a vast share of disappointments for the duration of the year with the likes of Mike Card, Joe Barnes and Eric Hunter coming off discouraging campaigns despite much early-season hype.

College players are not there to compensate quite as well as before. Last June, a spectacular crop of talent out of the United States transformed an average draft into an above-average one. While US colleges and high schools remain as the lifelines for draft darkhorses, the likes of Mike Lundin and Joe Rooney don't inspire nearly as much confidence.

Teams that decide to live on the edge on the draft weekend will roll the dice on talented high schoolers such as R.J. Anderson, Rob Page, Chris Bourque and Will Engasser. Judging by past draft results, the vast share of them will not achieve NHL stability, let alone NHL employment. NHL teams will gamble and, more often than not, lose on draft day.

Europe will fare strongly this year, capitalizing on an unspectacular North American representation. Czech Republic and Russia will have the most to offer as far as depth and blue-chip talent, while Slovakia will be surprisingly potent in comparison to previous years. No new Swedes truly jumped out onto the scene at the recent Under-18's, while a few were downright disappointing. Looking at the Finnish crop, outside of the foursome of Lauri Tukonen - Lauri Korpikoski - Petteri Nokelainen - Sami Lepisto, there is an exciting yet hardly solid group of players.

So as you go down our top 100 list, how can you characterize the levels of talent available? Here's what we think...

1st Tier: 1 - 2

Class of their own. Alexander Ovechkin and Evgeny Malkin have proven to be potential franchise players, while Rostislav Olesz has struggled and Cam Barker is still developing poise.

2nd Tier: 3 - 10

They could be contenders. Include Alex Radulov in this group due to his outstanding upside alone. Lauri Tukonen and Andrew Ladd aren't far from NHL duties and are potential stars.

3rd Tier: 11 - 16

Not quite elite. Players we're itching to call future all-stars, but we're aren't completely sold yet. There are weaknesses in these players that we do not see from the second tier guys.

4th Tier: 17 - 32

Above-average pro upside. The blue-collar (Mike Green, Kyle Chipchura, Boris Valabik), the raw (Jakub Sindel, Wes O'Neill, Enver Lisin, Korpikoski) and the not-so-battle-tested (Cory Schneider).

5th Tier: 33 - 45

Potentially solid pros and some players with game-breaking talent who have not yet put the pieces together (especially Blake Wheeler and Martins Karsums).

6th Tier: 46 – 63

Head scratchers. This is where it gets really watered down. Potentially solid pros here who don’t inspire as much confidence as the previous tier for issues of rawness (Bryan Bickell, Vaclav Meidl), lack of exposure (Viktor Alexandrov) and other certain weaknesses (see profiles for details).

7th Tier: 64 - 77

Pick 'em. Here is where the scouting eye truly comes into play. A lot of these players here flash upside, but many don’t have their tools in one toolbox quite yet. The likes of Kyle Wharton and Chad Painchaud here truly started to come into their own late in the year, but have not yet proven they can do what they did with consistency.

8th Tier: 78 - 100

Mainly two types: wildcards and the solid/unspectacular. A lot of unproven U.S.-based kids here who have yet to play against challenging competition (Kevin Porter, R.J. Anderson), along with more proven players such as Mark Fistric and Mitch Maunu who offer less intrigue as to their potential.