NHL BLOGNOTES [Jun-06]: Fantasy Impact the Draft

Fantasy Hockey Impact at the Draft (posted 6.27.06)

by Gus Katsaros

Chris Pronger – (80 12-44-56) Put away the knives Oilers fans. Axes too. It may not seem like it now, but Pronger has willingly done the best thing he could for the Edmonton Oilers. His departure is not a negative, but could be a plus.

They are trading away their best asset right after a monster performance in the playoffs. Let's not forget that the rest of the defense pulled it together during the run. He was a contributing factor and laid the groundwork for the future of the organization. A renewed standard for defense and the team. His contributions have garnered a new spirit, which could be continued through the legacy of Jason Smith and Steve Staios. They will still have to sign Jaroslav Spacek and possibly Sergei Samsonov.

The Oilers will get prime assets in return. To get a $6.25 million salary, a team will have to shed most, if not all, in return value. This could be the difference to a rebuilding team. They still have to sign a goalie, or go with Jussi Markkanen.

This isn't your middle brother's NHL, but a different era. The salary cap age. Besides, there is a precedent in management.

Oilers GM Kevin Lowe did a great job identifying the needs of the Oilers going into the '05-06 season, right after a work stoppage. He took the uncertainty of the franchise and turned them into contenders, Finalists no less. How much uncertainty was there going into last season? Pronger wasn't there. Management did a great job and will continue to do so.

After this dust-up is settled, in retrospect this move is similar, from a hockey perspective, to the Oilers past of shedding salary. Looking forward, with the pedigree of current Oilers management, witnessed by the team iced in '05-06, in the new cap-era NHL, with more possibility, the Oilers will be better off after this trade.

So put away those knives, people. Use them for some good summer BBQ and wait for next season, with a new hope, a new possibility.

Fantasy Value – Pronger followed a mild 56-point performance over 80 games with a monster playoff performance, finishing third is playoff scoring (24 5-16-21) first on the Oilers. His 11-powerplay points tied him for the team lead with Ales Hemsky. He averaged 6:28 of powerplay duty (out of his average time-on-ice of 30:57) in the playoffs, in line with the 6:40 in the regular season. Has he emerged into a scoring machine with a .875 playoff point-per-game average? Chances are he will revert back to his regular season average of .700 if he ends up with an offensive squad, given the powerplay time similar to Edmonton, he could raise his total to 65 points, with 70 as an upper limit. With a less talented unit, he could score similar to his 55-60 range of last season.

Roberto Luongo – (75 35-30; 213 Shots; 4 Shutouts; 2.97 GAA .914 SV%) Panther's leader in wins (107) only eclipsed the 30-win mark last season, netting 35 after five seasons as a Panther. Thanks in part to a great final quarter that saw Olli Jokinen and Joe Nieuwendyk each contribute to a string of wins. Luongo also needed to be good, but he's had to be outstanding in the previous four seasons. No goalie saw more rubber than he did in '05-06 where he faced 2488 shots (13 more than ' 03-04, also the highest shots-against), 383 more than Martin Brodeur. Same thing in '03-04. In Vancouver, he will have been just as good, it's just a nice bonus that he is an outstanding goalie, one of the best on the planet.

Now traded by a pair of Mikes (Keenan and prior to that Milbury from the Islanders) he goes to a stable environment, made even more so by the departed soap opera that went the other way. Vancouver has some holes to fill and question marks to address, but are much better off after making deal.

Fantasy Value – In Vancouver look for similar numbers of the '05-06 campaign. The 27-yr-old is not going to a drastically improved team, but one that with his help, could see the playoffs, his first time. His 35 wins can be duplicated, with a ceiling of 40, should he get the same workload combined with the shootout elimination of tie games. He will face fewer shots, which should translate to a better goals-against average. Vancouver will have to shore up its defense, particularly if they lose Ed Jovanovski.

Todd Bertuzzi – (82 25-46-71, minus-17) Will finally get away from the spotlight in Vancouver. Once able to dominate single-handedly, he hasn't had the same impact since the incident. The added bonus of having the talented Markus Naslund should have lifted him to better numbers last season. Both players fed off each other and influenced each other's production. Bertuzzi made Naslund just as effective with individualistic efforts after Naslund dished it off. He should have had better production without all the players hanging off him, but the spark, the passion went AWOL. Even at the Olympics in Turin, the showcase of the best of the best, his performance was average, as well as being victim of the penalty that allowed Russia to take control of the game.

One of the main reasons of the Canucks failure to make the playoffs by a razor-thin margin can be partly attributed to their lack of production in important situations. Another timely goal by those two and it's a different post-season outcome. Vancouver sheds Bertuzzi's $5.269-million salary, along with the possibility of a logical departure into free agent waters at season's end.

Fantasy Value – While the loss of experienced Naslund is huge in this regard, Bertuzzi gets to play with star center Olli Jokinen to compensate. A contract year in a new home, a second chance, tempts like no other. The potential is there for a return into the 80-point range and a new contract. If he could reach 90 points it could add a year or two more to any potential deal.

Alex Tanguay – (71 29-49-78) Flames entered the playoffs on the strength of their defense and were promptly tossed in the first round against the Ducks. They responded by acquiring the smooth skating, offensively gifted Tanguay from the Avalanche. A mirror of the Derek Morris for Chris Drury trade involving both teams, Tanguay immediately upgrades the offense. He gives Jarome Iginla a bona-fide sniper – led the NHL in shooting percentage (23.2 percent) – that could keep up with his speed. Tanguay's playoff experience is also an asset to a team that was bounced too early after coming within a video review of the Stanley Cup in '03-04. The Flames turned over to the Avalanche a prime asset in Leopold to acquire Tanguay, now they will have to adjust to allow him to recreate the flow he had alongside Joe Sakic in Colorado.

Fantasy Value – Tanguay is a player that can create offense on his own. The Flames defensive style may take some adjustment, but he's got defensive game and can fit in perfectly in the defensive end. With some freedom to let him create, he should do better than the 78 points that he put up last season. He will be hungry to get back in the successful side of the playoffs and will contribute by playing with Iginla. After finishing with 79 points in '03-04 and just shy last season, look at him to break 80 and flirt with 90 points.

Pavol Demitra – (58 25-37-62, plus-21) Started the season with points in nine of 12 October games (12 7-7-14) and followed up with a 21-point November (14 6-15-21, plus-12). Scored the first shootout goal in LA Kings history. Then things fell apart in January starting with a leg injury that saw him miss ten games. He missed another 14 due to a face injury (six games) and then a concussion (eight games). Various Kings missed time last season, including Alexander Frolov which eventually led to the dismissal of coach Andy Murray. Marc Crawford was named as his replacement. The Kings received a valuable prospect in Minnesota's 2003, 2nd round pick, Patrick O'Sullivan (78 47-46-93 with Houston) and are beginning a remodeling of the club. Luc Robitaille retired at the end of last season. Coach Jacques Lemaire now has a legitimate first line center to play with Marian Gaborik, but similar to Tanguay will need to tweak his system to fit the talented Slovak.

Fantasy Value – Will thrive playing with the talented Gaborik, provided they can sign or don't trade him away. Adding Demitra further entices the young star into remaining in Minnesota. Demitra was on pace for his second 90-point season before sidelined with injuries and playing alongside Gaborik will further help him attain those numbers. If they click initially, look to Demitra to flirt with his first 100-point season.

Jordan Leopold – (74 2-18-20) Will thrive in Colorado. The 25-yr-old will replace the loss of Adam Foote to free agency prior to the season. The emergence of Dion Phaneuf, the rookie worthy of a Calder nomination – and unfortunate to be a rookie the same year as Alexander Ovechkin and Sidney Crosby – relegated his duties to the defensive side. The strong puck moving defenseman will have a greater opportunity to contribute offensively in the Avalanche system, maintaining solid defense.

Fantasy Value – Will improve on two goals and 20 points with the benefit of playing for more offensive minded Avalanche. He could very well improve on the 33 points from '03-04 but his offerings are more than just points. His solid defensive presence will help out Theodore in front of the net. Depending on the return of Blake will determine if he could break the 40-point plateau.

Andrew Raycroft – (30 8-19; 100 GA; 824 Shots; 0 Shutouts 3.71 GAA; .879 SV%) Victim of an early season hamstring injury, former Calder winner could not regain form of breakout '03-04 season. Dressed in 40 games as backup after losing starting position to the combination of Tim Thomas and Hannu Toivonen. His joyous expression at the news of the trade is good news for the Leafs. He is better than the numbers posted last season and his fall from grace is laced with hints of economics. If qualified – and passes a physical – he will make $1.35-million in 2007 which fits the Leafs structure and allows them to look at the free agent market. They get a prime goalie for a fairly steep price, but fill an immediate need.

Fantasy Value – The Leafs have many areas of concern, primarily the defense and the reason for their participation in the Chris Pronger bonanza. Raycroft will have J.S. Aubin challenging as backup. He proved he could play stretches such as when Belfour went down as the season ended. He should get the majority of work and try to hook onto a long-term contract in a city he seems delighted to be playing in. The first 30-win season is in play.

***

This may be just as busy a summer as when free agency hit in August 2005. GM's in keeper leagues may have to make decisions right through to training camp. It will be important to be up to speed with developments on the free agent front this summer.

Don't forget the McKeen's Annual Hockey Pool Magazine will be available in late August early September, to add to your own observations with the benefit of expanded and enhanced analysis. The most comprehensive look at individual players to give informed GM's the edge.

Early Mock-Up (posted 6.10.06)

by Ron Jones

For years, baseball, football and even basketball have had industry-wide expert leagues. Hockey has been invisible in that arena. Until now. The first industry-wide fantasy hockey expert league has arrived. It will be very competitive, as twelve experts from well known sites battle it out for the bragging rights and to be proclaimed the top fantasy hockey expert.

Here are the experts who will be taking part in the league:

Rob Aquino – Sportsblurb

Pete Becker – Talented Mr. Roto

Scott Cullen – TSN

Darryl Dobbs – The Hockey News

Dan Dobish – CBS Sportsline

Michael Finewax – Rotoworld

Ray Flower – Fantasy hockey.com

Ron Jones – McKeen's

Jan Levine – Rotowire

Christian Peterson - Fanball

Matt Romig – Yahoo

Eric Maltais – Talented Mr. Roto

The league is roto style using the following categories;

Goals, Assists, Plus/Minus, Power Play Points and Penalty Minutes for forwards and defensemen

Wins, Goals Against Average and Save Percentage for goaltenders.

A mock draft was held on May 18th with ten of the owners present. Rosters were limited to 3 Centers, 3 Right Wingers, 3 Left Wingers, 4 Defensemen and 2 Goalies. It should be noted that Scott Cullen's picks were made via proxy from a list he had provided and that Ray Flowers' last four picks were by acclamation. Come the true draft this September, the rosters will be deeper and all experts will be present and accounted for. The playoffs aren't finished and this is just our way to gauge what the league looks like right now, before we crown a champion, before free agency, and before the entry draft. (special thanks to Eric Maltais for the write-up)

Round 1

Round 2

Round 3

Round 4

Round 5

Round 6

Round 7

Round 8

Round 9

Round 10

Round 11

Round 12

Round 13

Round 14

Round 15

Stanley Cup Finals Preview (posted 6.5.06)

by Gus Katsaros

Edmonton Oilers

Playoffs Recap

Round One

– Defeated the Red Wings in six games

In a series they were not supposed to win, they stole a game in Detroit, split in Edmonton for a 2-2 series with Game Five back in Motown. The Oilers won Game Five and took the series lead back into Rexall Place. After falling behind 3-1, they stormed back on goals by Pisani and Hemsky to tie the game at three. Hemsky scored at the 18:54 mark of the third to oust the heavily favored Red Wings.

Round Two

– Defeated the Sharks in six games.

Lost the first two games in San Jose, and then pulled it together to win four straight winning the series in six. The first two games ended up 2-1 losses with Sharks goalie Vesa Toskala putting on a goaltending clinic. The Oilers went on to win the next four games and carried that momentum into the next round into an eventual seven game win streak.

Round Three

– Defeated the Mighty Ducks in five games.

Stormed out to stake a 3-0 lead, the first two wins coming on the road before Anaheim woke up to take a game in Edmonton. Raffi Torres returned after battling a nasty flu bug, which forced him to miss games three and four. He scored the series-winning goal, tipping in a shot by defenseman Marc-Andre Bergeron (who coincidentally also missed a game with the same flu bug) at the 8:31 mark of the second period of game five in Anaheim.

Michael Peca: Oilers have only two losses (five total) at the friendly confines of Rexall Place in the post season.

Michael Peca had a six game point streak snapped in Game Four against the Ducks. After going nine games registering only assist, Peca began to light it up in Game Four against the Sharks. He then went on to record a point in six straight games (6 5-3-9) until being held scoreless in the final two games against the Ducks. The $4 million player that Oiler fans expected to show up during the regular season, finally showed up in the playoffs. Peca is not about goals and assists, rather what other intangible he brings to the team. He wins face-offs 50.6 percent of the time, he hits and hustles to loose pucks. He may not be the leading scorer on the team, but he will be playing against the other team's top guns. Look for a battle of defensive minded forwards, with Peca being used against either Eric Staal or Rod Brind'Amour/Cory Stillman in the finals.

Fernando Pisani (17 9-3-12): How many people picked Edmonton product Fernando Pisani in their hockey pools? Pisani's nine goals tie him for the lead with the now displaced Patrick Marleau and Hurricanes Rod Brind'Amour. He has potted three game winners, two in back-to-back games versus the Ducks (Games two and three). Nine goals on 32 shots, sports him a shooting percentage of 28.1 percent.

Ryan Smyth (17 5-9-14): He had his teeth knocked out by a clearing attempt. The tough winger returned to set up Shawn Horcoff's game- winning goal in overtime in a Game Three thriller against the Sharks. That goal turned the series around and started a seven game win streak. His 43 shots lead the Oilers and 22:19 ice-time per game is only second to Shawn Horcoff among forwards.

Chris Pronger (17 4-13-17)

Oilers workhorse is tied with Shawn Horcoff in scoring with 17 points and has been rock solid leading the playoffs with 31:34 of average ice-time per game. His 38 shots-on-goal are second to Ryan Smyth's 43. His presence is felt taking on the likes of Robert Lang and Pavel Datsyuk in Round One, Thornton, and Cheechoo in Round Two and Teemu Selanne in Round Three.

Sergei Samsonov (17 3-11-14): Diminutive winger acquired at the deadline has been a force, albeit with some gaffes along the way. He scored in Game Four against the Sharks on a horrible clearing attempt by Sharks goalie Vesa Toskala. Fresh from the sin-bin he barreled down into the Sharks zone in a race for the puck with Toskala. Toskala's attempt to clear hit Samsonov and he threw it into a wide-open cage for the game-tying goal. Early in the third, he set up Captain Jason Smith for the game-winner.

Jarret Stoll (17 4-4-8): Jarret Stoll was shown in a clip during a CBC broadcast during Round Two against the Sharks practicing face-offs. Starting with possession of the puck after a face-off is important, but he will have to enhance the value he brings in the face-off circle with a contribution on offense. Stoll has not recorded a point in his last six games.

Dwayne Roloson (17 12-5, 2.22 GAA, .931 SV%, 1 shutout): In a CBC broadcast, he was asked if this is the best hockey he has played in his career, his response was apt. "No, this is how I play." Has there been any steadier goaltending than what Roloson has delivered throughout the '05-06 playoffs? The March 5 acquisition from the Minnesota Wild for a first round pick seemed a harsh price to pay. He has silenced critics and opened many eyes to the caliber game he can bring to the table. A solid positional goalie, he reads the play well, covering all angles, while further frustrating the opposition with superior rebound control. His puck-handling ability is underrated, aiding in the quick transition game characteristic of the Oilers. The opposition has done many things to knock him off his game, including running at him and crowding his crease. He has complained to the referees on many occasions about the traffic in front of his net, all the while maintaining his composure. The Oilers will rely on Roloson to provide the same solid goaltending into the Finals.

Carolina Hurricanes

Playoffs Recap

Round One

– Defeated the Montreal Canadiens in six games

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Lost the first two games of the post-season and the first 'upset' was in the making. The Hurricanes responded by winning the next four straight eliminating the Canadiens in Game six in Montreal. Cory Stillman scored the first of three game-winning goals in overtime on a shot from inside the blueline that seemed to handcuff Montreal's Cristobal Huet.

Round Two Defeated the New Jersey Devils in five games

The Hurricanes took a four game win streak into the series with the Devils, adding another three wins. The Devils won Game Four to avoid being swept and snapped the seven game win streak. The Hurricanes allowed only three powerplay goals in 31 opportunities against the Devils, while scoring nine of their own in 24 chances. It took five games to oust the Devils who swept the Rangers in Round One.

Round Three

– Defeated the Buffalo Sabres in seven games

The Sabres stretched the series to seven games, competing with a depleted lineup. Four defensemen and Tim Connolly was not enough to win the series against a deep team like the Hurricanes. Still, it took six games and two periods to establish the winner of the Eastern Conference Finals. Fatigue and inexperience kicked in about midway through Game Seven.

Eric Staal (18 7-13-20): Playoff scoring leader going into the Finals had a 15 game point streak snapped in Game Five against the Sabres (15 7-13-20). The streak was a Hurricanes playoff record. In a dream season, Staal has established his role as an elite forward entering into the phase described as the 'new NHL.' In Games Six and Seven versus the Sabres, he was held scoreless, and was not as dominated as he had been all season, and in the streak. He was held to six shots in those games while not battling with the same tenacity he displayed during the point streak. He was robbed in the second period of Game Seven by a lightning quick glove hand snatch from Sabres Ryan Miller. The look on his face after that indicated a mild frustration. There is a lot of pressure on a 21 year old surrounded by a group of veterans. He can handle the pressure that has been his trademark this season. He plays the point on the powerplay where he has scored five goals.

Rod Brind'Amour (18 9-6-15): An established veteran, the 35-year-old is the only forward to lead his team in ice-time per game with 24:05 in the playoffs. He scored the game-winning goal and added an assist against the Sabres to clinch a berth in the Finals for the Hurricanes. Prior to the two-point night, he had gone the last five games scoring only one goal. His nine goals are tied for the playoff lead with Oilers Pisani and Patrick Marleau and is tied with Cory Stillman with three game-winning goals. He plays even-strength, powerplay and kills penalties. Rod 'The Bod' enters his second Finals appearance with the Hurricanes in the last 3 seasons. He take face-offs and wins 58 percent of them ensuring that his team starts the play off with possession of the puck. Look for Brind'Amour to make a valiant effort to win his first Stanley Cup.

Cory Stillman (18 7-12-19): Won the Stanley Cup with the Lightning in '03-04 and was signed for offensive depth and playoff experience by the Hurricanes in the off-season, after the lockout. He picked up his stellar post-season form in '05-06, scoring the series-winning goal against the Canadiens and the Devils. He added his third game-winning goal against the Sabres, scoring in overtime to give the Hurricanes a 3-2 series lead. His 53 shots are third on the team, behind Staal and Justin Williams, all while averaging 18:49 ice-time per game.

Doug Weight (18 2-11-13) / Mark Recchi (18 5-5-10): Late season acquisitions to the Hurricanes, they have provided an element of leadership to an already deep roster. When Erik Cole was lost to the Hurricanes, it did not take them long to find the replacement in Doug Weight, acquired from the St. Louis Blues. His game-tying goal in the third period of Game Seven against the Sabres was his first goal since Game One versus the Devils, which is 10 games. That goal was atonement for taking the penalty in overtime in Game Six, which the Sabres capitalized on to force Game Seven back in Raleigh. Mark Recchi was added from the Penguins at the deadline for veteran presence, has not been in the Finals since he last tasted a Finals victory 15 years ago in 1991 with the Penguins. He scored three points in round one (1-2-3) five points in Round Two (2-3-5) and a measly two goals in Round Three. If the Hurricanes were looking for a veteran presence, they got it from Recchi. If they were looking to enhance their scoring, then Recchi has been a major bust.

Ray Whitney (17 6-4-10): Whitney was a non-factor point-wise against the Canadiens, but picked it up in the later rounds. He scored one goal in Round one, the only goal of a 6-1 loss in Game one. Against the Devils he had three goals (5 3-1-4) and against the Sabres two goals (7 2-3-5) including assists in Cory Stillman's overtime winner in Game Five and Doug Weight's game-tying goal in Game Seven. The diminutive winger zipped through the opposition and has been a constant threat despite these early numbers.

Cam Ward (11-5, 2.07 GAA, .919 SV%, 1 shutout): Battling a nasty flu, Martin Gerber lost his starting position to back-up rookie Cam Ward in Game Two versus the Canadiens. Ward let the rest of the way until Game Three against the Sabres. Gerber then made his first start since Game Two versus the Canadiens only to be pulled in the third period of Game Four versus the Sabres. Cam Ward took over from there and backstopped the Hurricanes to their 4-2 series victory. The Hurricanes will be looking for solid goaltending from Ward in the Finals, much the same as he has been providing throughout the post-season, save for a few minor instances. They will need him to maintain the calm demeanor in the face of adversity and buzzing Oilers around his net. He has not faced the same amount pressure that he may face against the Oilers in the playoffs.

Erik Cole (0 points – ALL HEART):

There is nothing to expect from Erik Cole for the Hurricanes. He was told not to return to playing the game until he had a better handling on the game of life. He practiced with the team and desperately attempted to make it back for at least a Finals appearance. The last time the Hurricanes went to the Finals, Cole played a major role. This time, his perseverance and dedication to the game should give the rest of the Hurricanes something to strive for. Get better Erik. We feel your pain every time we see a nasty hit from behind.

Road Scoring

Edmonton

The Oilers being the eighth seed and advancing are the only team to start every round on the road. As such, they have had to rely on scoring in the opposition's barn for the better part of the playoffs. They have played nine road games to eight at home. Scoring on the road is essential to the success of teams in the post season and the Oilers have not been short of contributors in that department. Fernando Pisani has scored five goals and seven points (9 5-2-7) on the road. Chris Pronger has bagged 17 points (17 3-14-17) in the post-season, while 10 of those points have come on the road (9 3-7-10). Ryan Smyth (17 5-9-14) split his point totals evenly on the road (9 3-4-7) and at home (8 2-5-7). All down the roster, it is an even balance of scoring, which being the eighth seed, required them to be competitive on the road.

Carolina

The Hurricanes have started every series at home and have proven that they love playing there. Unlike the Oilers, their home/road scoring is quite skewed. Eric Staal has 13 of 20 points at home, while Stillman has 12 of 20 in Raleigh. Brind'Amour has four points on the road, while Matt Cullen has two of his 11 points on the road. Doug Weight has three road points, Ray Whitney one assist. The only balance comes from Mark Recchi where his 10 points are broken down evenly at five at home and five on the road. The Hurricanes will have to improve on this, especially if the Oilers steal a game in Raleigh and take the series back to Edmonton tied at one.

Notes and Extras

Cory Stillman and Mike Commodore were enemies in the '03-04 final where Stillman's Lightning went on to defeat Commodore's Flames in seven games. Also on the Flames, team was Buffalo's Tony Lydman.

Doug Weight goes back to Edmonton where he played nine seasons. Ray Whitney was a stickboy for the Oilers and played there in the 1997-98 season.

Carolina's Niclas Wallin has scored three career playoff goals. All three are Overtime game-winning goals.

Carolina has not lost two games in a row since losing the first two games to the Canadiens.

Carolina is the only team in the playoffs where a forward (Rod Brind'Amour) leads in ice time per game.

Canes and Sabres both scored late 3rd period goals to tie a game and force O/T. They went on to win those games. Canes -- Game 2 vs Devils, scored with 4 seconds left, and won in O/T - Sabres -- Game 1 vs the Sens with 10 seconds left in the 3rd. Won in O/T.