March Whos Hot / Whos Not: TAKING A FALL
Auffrey - RW (US NTDP) - "Just not cutting the jam," according
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to our scout, upon recent viewings of the U.S. National Team Development Program.
"Auffrey should be a more effective forechecker given his physical makeup.
He plays the body consistently, but his hits aren't overly hard and often serve
little purpose. I'd like to see him work harder away from the puck and use his
size (6-2, 205) and skills to create chances, rather than relying on his smaller
teammates to get him the puck. And his interest level seems to elevate whenever
he gets the puck, a condition also inflicting Adam Berti, another player I've
seen plenty of this season. Still, Auffrey does show good power-forward potential.
He has a booming shot, a great release and nice pickup speed. But his top gear
is lacking, average at best, and I have concerns about his overall decision
making, mainly in his own zone. He must get faster to maximize his finesse skills,
which are supposedly better than he's shown us."
Bickell - LW (Ottawa) - After some additional viewings, we are still
not satisfied. Bickell's mental approach to the game is so behind where it should
be that it is reasonable to be concerned about his upside. He doesn't really
have backbone in the opponent's end and while he'll use his body, he lacks edge
and jump. That said, we're not discounting the good things in this package -
Bickell can really skate with a fluid, effortless stride. However, his tendencies
to float make his skating look average at times, but this is simply deceiving.
He doesn't deserve to be a first rounder, but he has the big body and the mobility
and all it takes is one team willing to take a shot on him.
Curilla - C (Kladno) - A promising talent, but has been a disappointment
just about at every level this year. Curilla failed to turn heads with uninspired
play in the junior Extraleague and was not invited to the Five Nations tourney.
Says our scout in the Czech Republic: "this guy is a magnificent stickhandler,
but he hasn't be able to make use of his talents and had been fading in obscurity
in some games in the last month. He's a swift skater with above-average acceleration
and quick twists and turns. He uses his mobility to forecheck and force opposing
forwards to make mistakes. He has soft hands and good vision. He's very maneuverable
and can be explosive when in the mood. On the downside, he's quite soft and
a perimeter guy on most nights. Defensively, he's a non-factor and his lack
of appreciation for play in traffic is killing his stock. A major disappointment
considering his range."
Doucet - C (Victoriaville) - This guy can be really deceptive to the
scouting eye, because he has good hands and has been productive this year (third
in team scoring). The kid is technically a project, but we question whether
there is real potential to flourish - he is far from a technically sound skater
and demonstrates poor balance, getting easily knocked off the puck. A clearly
visible issue is his lack of size (5-9, 170), which renders him ineffective
in his own end. Says our QMJHL scout: "he's a playmaking center, not a
finisher and has shown some chemistry with Renaud Des Alliers since he'd arrived
in town. His speed is actually not bad - I see some nice moves and creativity
when he's trying to beat the defensemen. There is good vision and he displays
a crafty side with well-timed feeds. Unfortunately, Doucet is the kind of guy
who needs space to create so it will be interesting to see if he can find a
way when there is considerably less of it in the pros. I think it'll be like
a cold shower for him."
Dubnyk - G (Kamloops) - All in all, one should be satisfied with Devan's
play - he's had his down moments, but has shown the ability to bounce back strongly.
However, improved play from the likes of Andrew Ladd and Kyle Chipchura has
lowered his stock, while Dubnyk has been good and not great. Consistency is
still at times a problem and on his worst nights, he's made us rather nervous.
But there's a reason to be optimistic about his progress - Devan's desire and
attitude are exceptional and he drives himself to improve at all times. According
to our scout in Kamloops: "He's extremely well spoken and has a boatload
of heart and desire - and you always hear him say just how much he hates to
lose and expects 110% from himself and his teammates. It should also be taken
into consideration that the Blazers have been in a state of some turmoil this
year as the team has had its moments under-achievement, where many of the veterans
showed a consistent lack of focus. Looking at all of these factors, Dubnyk has
handled himself rather impressively."
Funk - D (Portland) - Has taken a minor step down, but we have lowered
his stock for a reason - he's like a Mother Teresa on skates; he gives, gives,
gives but all to the wrong team. We see a lot of promise in this package, but
it's hard not to be put off by his lack of poise and penchant for impulsively
unloading the puck left and right. After a period of steady progression throughout
the first half, Funk hasn't made required strides recently and is oftentimes
seen struggling positionally and trailing his man. His big frame and strong
skating skills are major factors in his overall solid value as a prospect -
we're expecting a strong finish to his season.
Hensick - C (Michigan) - The Wolverines' freshman star has done absolutely
nothing to warrant a drop in our rankings. The straw that stirs Michigan's lethal
'Price Club' line, Hensick's playmaking wizardry has resurrected the collegiate
career of Atlanta draftee Milan Gajic, who was inches from quitting hockey last
fall, and continues to propel the free-agent stock of Brandon Kaleniecki. We
love Hensick's quickness, creativity and 'big play' capabilities, and there's
little doubt his preservational instincts will protect him in the pros. However,
unless something gives, the NHL remains predominantly a big man's game, and
there's a cluster of bigger physical specimens who have simply overtaken the
5-foot-9 Hensick. If you're looking for speed and skill, then this is a worthy
second-round investment, capable of polishing into a gem.
Olver - C (Northern Michigan) - Former Chilliwack star cooled after
a terrific freshman start, but still leads the Wildcats with 11 goals despite
bulging the twine just three times over the past two months. Olver possesses
a terrific first step burst, reaching top gear in a few strides, as well as
the skill level to make plays at full speed. He doesn't shy away from heavy
traffic and has a nose for getting to the net. Although he tends to assume the
role of a playmaker, he also has a good shot and a crisp release. However, at
just 170 pounds, Olver's quickness and determination is often negated by bigger,
stronger collegiate defenseman, which has hurt his stock in some circles. But
we don't see him slipping past the second round given his impressive speed/skill
ratio. Potentially a home run pick if and when the muscle arrives.
Roberge - G (Rouyn-Noranda) - There is plenty of upside here, but there
are other goaltenders in this draft much better than the touted Roberge. According
to one of our QMJHL scouts: "(Roberge) does not fill the net well and his
lateral pad movement hurts him regularly. He spends way too much time on his
knees, which is typical of goalies of his age, but you don't see the really
good ones do it. He must improve his foot work, he tends to move his feet before
the attacker budges, which is a mental no-no. On the bright side, this guy is
as quick as they come. He's always moving, his legs are dynamic and his glove
is solid. I wouldn't be surprised if he's a late bloomer and none of his problems
are unfixable, but there's no shortage of good netminders in this draft, so
his stock is suffering."
Schultz - D (Calgary) - Touted as a potential first-rounder in other
circles, this guy is certainly talented and physically well-constructed, which
is why it kind of pains us to lower him any further. That said, we realize that
any team that selects him in the June draft will be taking a gamble on a player
whose skating is quite simply substandard. Whereas the top-end rearguards are
predominantly smooth and accomplished skaters, Schultz's technique can only
be described as 'rough'. He shows a decent top-end gear once he gets up to speed,
however, the cracks really start appearing while defending one-on-one off the
rush or down low against the cycle. His below-par agility and lateral quickness
are regularly exposed by fast, tricky forwards. A number of times this season
we have seen him left in the dust like the roadrunner does to that coyote. But
all in all, there are some intriguing pros to whet the appetite - his game smarts
and puck skills are both very solid, and we like his 'take charge' attitude.
However, these will not come through for him in the NHL unless his skating takes
a major turn for the best.
Shitikov - RW (CSKA) - Developed a fine rep as far back as last season,
becoming known as a fast goal-scorer on Russia's Under-18 squad alongside Alexander
Ovechkin and Evgeni Malkin. To our collective disappointment, Shitikov's progress
has remained stagnant this year. One of CSKA's youngest try-outs in the pre-season,
Shitikov was unable to make the club in September and has since been stuck with
the club's junior farm team. According to our Russian scout: "It seems
like the old high-tempo, aggressive Shitikov has disappeared - I no longer recognize
this guy. He has slowed down physically and mentally and his decision-making
looks questionable. He looked slow and unsure of himself at the Five Nations
tourney - got completely outclassed by other forwards. He still got considerable
icetime and managed one paltry goal, which is simply unacceptable - he did after
all skate with Evgeni Malkin. His performance there will likely cost Dmitri
a spot on Russia's top line at the April Under-18 event."
Welton - D (Quebec) - Strictly a one-dimensional blueliner along the
lines of the Blue Jackets' Aaron Johnson, but with less upside. Says one of
our QMJHL scouts: "he struggles immensely in the defensive zone and is
notorious for coughing up the puck in the neutral zone and not being able to
get back. I'm not at all impressed with his skating; it is below-average and
he has problems compensating for his poor defensive decisions. Regardless, Nathan
has the potential to develop into a true scoring rearguard in the Q - he likes
to join the rush and is confident carrying the puck. His vision is an attribute
and he knows when to head-man the puck to the forwards. He is instinctive in
his own end, especially the blueline-in, but leaves his defensive area too frequently.
Work ethic is average and I've seen only moderate improvement in this category
from the start of the year."