Inside the NHL

The Atlanta Thrashers have, since their inception, been regarded as the doormat of the NHL. Poor defense, goaltending and a lack of quality forwards have contributed to several humiliating seasons in Atlanta. The Thrashers finished well out of the postseason hunt in 2002-03, notching 74 points and placing 11th in the Eastern Conference. But they’ll be a playoff team this year.

This past January, GM Don Waddell hired deposed Colorado coach Bob Hartley, a Stanley Cup winner three years ago with the Avalanche. Under Hartley, widely considered one of the league’s top bench bosses, the Thrashers posted an impressive 19-14-5-1 record that, if spread out over 82 games, would have resulted in an even more impressive total of 92 points. The 74-point total bested the 2001-02 season’s total by 20. Before Hartley arrived in Atlanta, the club was allowing an astronomical 3.79 goals per game. Under his watch, however, the Thrashers improved the total to 3.11.

Hartley isn’t the lone reason for higher expectations, however. Goaltender Byron Dafoe appears completely healthy for the first time in over a year. He had a forgettable season in 2002-03, posting a 5-11-1 record, an 86.2 save percentage and a whopping 4.36 goals-against average before being shelved for the year with an injury. In 2001-02 with Boston, Dafoe was among the league’s best goalies, boasting a 35-26-3 record, a 2.21 GAA and a 90.7 save percentage. Though not an elite netminder, Dafoe is no doubt a difference maker when healthy. His presence will bolster a shaky defensive corps, and he’s certainly capable of stealing games down the stretch. And in case Dafoe goes down again, Atlanta has two of the top goaltending prospects in the world in Kari Lehtonen and Pasi Nurminen.

The Thrashers will continue to progress, though, because of the continued improvement of wingers Dany Heatley and Ilya Kovalchuk. Kovalchuk, 20, ripped through the NHL as a rookie in the 2001-02 season. He pounded in 29 goals in just 65 games before a season-ending injury. Last season, Kovalchuk, just 19 at the time, notched 38, good for seventh-best in the league. Heatley, just 22, aligned himself among the league’s elite last season with a 41-goal, 89-point effort. Both have defensive deficiencies, but both are supreme talents.

Why they’ll make it: Essentially the same team will be back on the ice for the 2003-04 season, so team chemistry won’t be a problem. The Thrashers scored 226 goals last season, a respectable number good for tenth best in the NHL. Kovalchuk and Heatley, are the keys to the season, and they’re already two of the best players in the league. If Hartley decides to split them up, Atlanta will have two outstanding scoring lines. Center Marc Savard, a mid-season pick-up, scored 47 points in 57 games after leaving his miserable situation in Calgary. Slava Kozlov had a resurgent season (70 points) and was promptly re-signed. Veteran Shawn McEachern, a 32-goal scorer three seasons ago in Ottawa who played just 46 games last year, should finally be healthy. Dafoe is a bona fide number one goalie, something the club has lacked since its inception. And in Hartley, the Thrashers have one of the NHL’s very best coaches.

Why they won’t: Beyond the top five forwards, the depth drops off noticeably. Patrik Stefan, the first overall pick in 1999, has been nothing but an enigma. He’s scored just 35 goals and 113 points in four seasons. The Thrashers’ defensive corps is arguably the worst in the league. Yannick Tremblay is a minutes-eater, but he was an atrocious minus-27 last season. The addition of second-year man Ivan Majesky from Florida will no doubt help, but he won’t be a difference maker. Andy Sutton is huge (6’6, 250) and has shown continued improvement, but he, too, is far from a superior blueliner. Why Waddell didn’t pursue a free-agent defenseman (Ken Klee, Richard Matvichuk, even Derian Hatcher) in the off-season is anyone’s guess. And given the Thrashers’ general lack of depth, injuries could absolutely decimate this team.

Bottom line: Hartley has and will continue to make a difference in Atlanta. A full season of Dafoe will certainly make up for some of Atlanta’s swiss-cheese blueline. Kovalchuk will pot 50 goals, and Heatley will score 100 points. And the Thrashers will finish with 87 points, good enough for the franchise’s first playoff berth.