2004 Draft: Buyer Beware
Is unwarranted hype clouding the draft picture? Find out which players we feel have been overrated by the media in recent pre-draft coverage.
Adam Berti LW
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He can be about as hard to move as a statue but he shows just about as much pizzaz. There are two concerns with Berti: his lack of willingness to work hard along the boards and his average hands, which will limit him offensively. If he smartens up he’ll be a capable checking player, but we don’t see much more here.
This guy could be another example of a player taken fairly high on draft day mainly based on his skating. Other facets of his game are question marks - he is a small forward who is not a pure finisher. He handles the puck well and is capable of awing with excellent shifty moves, but when his name is considered, most likely sometime in the third round, a more physically-endowed player would be a better pick.
He is not the third best defenseman available as some are claiming. If there is any truth to the hype, Smid could go as high as top 12, but we feel that would be a reach for any team. In terms of pure god-given skills, this guy has the potential of a star, but there are defensemen in this draft who play with much more gusto, character and self-confidence like Mike Green, Boris Valabik and even Andrej Meszaros.
We have made our stance before that we are simply not convinced. He has played much of the year with professionals, but the Slovakian league would not rank top 5 on most lists of pro hockey leagues around the world. The reason why scouts like this guy enough to take him very early is his outstanding robust offensive style that oftentimes makes him look dynamic. His first-step quickness, once discovered, is something to behold. However, for a potential power play quarterback, as some try to sell him, Meszaros does not exhibit elite natural playmaking skills and deft understanding of the location of his teammates. He is also often quite indecisive when shooting opportunities come along. This is a first round talent, but we think he is like a high-budget Hollywood movie - he fools the eye, but once you look closer you don’t really get expected results.
There was virtually no hype about the smallish Olimb a month ago, but suddenly he’s become a darling of media draft coverage. We have him listed at 5-foot-9, but some say he’s as small as 5-foot-7. Although an outstanding stickhandler and a true battler, Olimb has ways to go before learning to tolerate and survive in traffic. He also has limited scoring potential, although he thrives as a very good playmaker. Selecting him higher than the fourth round would be puzzling to us.
Liam Reddox LW
There have been a lot of players like Reddox that never transferred their scoring ways into the NHL. The first problem is the size issue, but unlike most of smallish forwards that beat the odds and make it, he is an average skater at best which does not make for an encouraging combination. Reddox has good hands and above-average offensive smarts but that is only the tip of the iceberg for pro success.
We won’t beat a dead horse here as Schremp’s season has been digested and regurgitated, on and on, the whole year. We, however, would like to challenge two ways of thinking: 1) Rob Schremp’s fall down the rankings has not solely been due to questions about his attitude. We admit that these concerns were taken into account by us when ranking players, but the real catalyst has been his lack of passion and defensive presence which was notably exposed in the offseason. 2) The belief that his upside makes him a better pick than Drew Stafford or Alexandre Picard is flawed. First of all, upside does not alone dictate decisions at the draft table - very rarely do players reach full upside and there are indications that there are certain ones who are more likely to reach that desired peak than others. Secondly, it is important to note that it is around the age of 17-18 when young players begin to resemble their future selves and Schremp gave no indication that he was superior in performance, at this age, than the likes of Ladd, Stafford and Picard. A year or two ago he was considered to be a possible franchise player, but that is no longer so - ample proof to why kids get drafted at 17-18, not 16-17. In other words, forget past hype and judge Schremp based on this year, not previous years.
Good defenseman, but extremely overrated. There is a lot of hype about Schultz going into the draft, which might be enough to get him selected very high. The pluses are the hands, the above average understanding of the game and ability to jump in offensively. We feel that his lateral awkwardness is a problem and will hold him back unless he works his butt off to skate quicker. One thing that players realize when the take the step into the NHL is that the game is extremely faster. If attacking forwards are leaving Schultz in the dust in the WHL, then how will he cope in the NHL? Consider that.
There is a combination of size and interesting offensive range here, but it is Sersen’s vision and inability to make consistent plays under pressure that had gradually lowered his stock. He should fall beyond the second round of the draft, but certain teams might be captivated with the flashes of brilliance he displays every now and then. We think that you can teach a lot of technical aspects of the game, even make a good skater out of a bad one, but vision issues tend to stay with a player for the duration of the career, more often than not.